As global jet fuel supplies face increasing pressure and demand continues to rise, researchers are looking at alternative fuels to secure the future of aviation. A new report from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), funded by NASA, assesses the potential of five emerging aviation fuels to meet these challenges. The study highlights both the promise and the hurdles of scaling up alternatives like SAF, liquid hydrogen, LNG, liquefied ethane, and Jet X.
NLR’s Research on Future Aviation Fuels
The NLR report, titled ‘An Overview of Potential Future Aviation Energy Carriers,’ explores the production potential of five fuels: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied ethane, and Jet X. Jet A and A-1 remain the most widely used aviation fuels globally, but supply chain volatility and rising prices are driving interest in alternatives.
According to Kristi Moriarty, senior vehicle and infrastructure analysis researcher at NLR, ‘Demand for jet fuel is projected to rise from just over 100 billion gallons in 2025 to 165 billion gallons by 2050.’ The report emphasizes the need for domestically produced fuels to help insulate the aviation industry from global supply shocks and price spikes.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Current Status and Challenges
SAF is the most commercially advanced of the emerging fuels, capable of replacing up to 50% of Jet A in traditional aircraft. Most SAF is produced from fats, cooking oils, greases, and alcohol, with ongoing research into using biomass, algae, and municipal waste as feedstocks.
Despite being available since 2016, SAF accounts for just 1% of global jet fuel use. Its adoption has been limited by high costs—rarely falling below $6 (~AUD 9) per gallon—compared to Jet A and A-1, which have surged to $4 (~AUD 6) per gallon and higher. NLR estimates that available feedstocks could support production of up to 132 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2050, or 80% of projected demand. However, scaling up will require lower production costs, more biorefineries, and coordinated investment from both industry and government.
Regional Focus: SAF Potential in New England
The Massachusetts Port Authority recently commissioned NLR to evaluate SAF production for 10 New England airports. Researchers found that the region has sufficient feedstock to produce up to 850 million gallons of gasoline equivalent per year, highlighting the feasibility of regional SAF supply chains.
Cryogenic Fuels: Liquid Hydrogen, LNG, and Liquefied Ethane
Liquid hydrogen, LNG, and liquefied ethane are categorized as cryogenic fuels, requiring specialized insulated storage and new airport infrastructure. These fuels are not drop-in replacements for Jet A, and their adoption would require new aircraft designs and international safety standards.
Liquid hydrogen offers high energy per weight and is nonpolluting, while LNG can be produced domestically at a lower cost than Jet A. Liquefied ethane, though less common, provides higher energy density than LNG and is seeing increased production. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is collaborating with NLR to prepare for a potential increase in hydrogen fuel demand at airports.
Jet X: Early-Stage Research
Jet X represents a new class of liquid hydrocarbon fuels currently in early-stage research. The goal is to develop chemistries that improve fuel economy, reduce toxic emissions, and minimize contrail formation. Significant long-term research is needed to ensure compatibility with existing airport and aircraft systems.
Competitor Comparison
While SAF is the most advanced alternative, liquid hydrogen and LNG are being explored by various manufacturers for future aircraft. Each fuel presents unique infrastructure and regulatory challenges, with SAF leading in commercial readiness but cryogenic fuels offering long-term diversification for the aviation sector.
Why this matters
With jet fuel demand expected to rise sharply by 2050, the aviation industry faces significant supply and price risks. NLR’s research shows that a mix of emerging fuels could help stabilize the market and reduce reliance on imported oil. However, realizing this potential will require coordinated investment, regulatory support, and technological advances across the supply chain.
What this means for buyers
Travelers and airlines should expect gradual changes in fuel sourcing and pricing as alternative fuels enter the market. SAF is likely to become more common at major airports, especially in regions with abundant feedstocks. Buyers should monitor developments in fuel infrastructure and regional availability, as these will influence both ticket prices and the environmental impact of air travel.
Related coverage from The Electric Viking
For more on sustainable aviation and alternative fuels, see Absurdly Fast EV Chargers Are Coming To America, But Cars Aren’t Ready and BMW Is Working On A Cheaper Neue Klasse EV.
Key Specs
- Projected Jet Fuel Demand (2050): 165 billion gallons (~625 billion liters)
- Current SAF Share of Jet Fuel Market: 1%
- SAF Price (typical): $6 (~AUD 9) per gallon
- Jet A/A-1 Price (current): $4 (~AUD 6) per gallon
- Potential SAF Production (2050): 132 billion gallons (~500 billion liters) per year
- New England SAF Production Potential: 850 million gallons (~3.2 billion liters) per year
- Cryogenic Fuels: Liquid hydrogen, LNG, liquefied ethane
- Report Title: An Overview of Potential Future Aviation Energy Carriers
Source
Images sourced from: simpleflying.com, arc-refuellers.be, vehicular.us
